Xanana the Demagogue

Days before the elections on the 12th of May I responded to an AP article on ETAN news list reporting on a call by Xanana Gusmão the "East Timor hero" for "restraint after campaign violence". I was critical of Xanana (and of the unashamedly biased AP article) as he was represented in this story without question (see below). As he called for "restraint", Xanana and his AMP clique were spreading the seeds of conflict in order to win the election. One of his targets were Alkatiri whose Islamic faith became a target for Xanana's demagoguery.

For many years, since we separated from Indonesia (the largest Muslim country in the world, and a democracy), religious differences have never been the subject of discussion, much less of political nature. A nation firmly rooted in Catholicism, we are also a model of tolerance in the region, a fact made obvious by Mari Alkatiri, a Muslim of Yemeni origin who became our first prime minister post 1999 referendum.

But Alkatiri also had a powerful rival, Xanana Gusmão. Their rivalry is made worse by Xanana's style and tactics, his unscrupulousness, and his shrewdness. While he was out from power between 2002 and 2007, Xanana plotted to overthrow Alkatiri by encouraging a series of national crisis, including one in 2006 that nearly plunged the country into an all out civil war. Alkatiri resigned and Xanana gained control of the state, holding on to it until 2017 when he was defeated in the elections. Having failed to wrest power from Alkatiri, Xanana formed alliance with Taur Matan Ruak and forced the country to an early election. His alliance with Matan Ruak was a success and together they soundly defeated Alkatiri.

But here is the problem. Although Xanana formed a powerful alliance with two other political parties and another influential figure, Taur Matan Ruak, he also saw the need to play the racial and religious card. Xanana and his AMP clique spread lies among the rural voters saying that a Muslim prime minister would turn the country into an Islamic country. The specter of mosques being built in all corners of the country was graphically illustrated through fake IDs on Facebook and promoted by CNRT and AMP official Facebook pages. Accusations of Alkatiri not being of Timorese origin were also launched, targeting rural voters. Fretilin leaders were forced to defend Alkatiri in every meeting it held with the voters. No AMP leaders, much less Xanana or Taur Matan Ruak, came out to Alkatiri's defense or to denounce these tactics. In fact Xanana was actively pushing this line as he did during one of his public speeches in Maliana (watch video). It was a sad state of affairs!

Now that the elections are finished, how are we going to pick up the pieces? Can we go back to the times when religion was not an issue, much less a political issue? Unlikely. For starters, the recent bombing in Indonesia is being used as an excuse locally to persecute the minority Islamic community in Timor Leste. There has been a flurry of Facebook posts, many by fake IDs, to draw connection between Timor's small Islamic community and the bombing in Indonesia. Timorese Muslims, in Muslim garbs, have been anonymously photographed and the photos posted on Facebook, shared, liked and followed by slurs and threats in the comment section. Why now? Elections are finished, aren't they?

Timorse Muslims being photographed secretly and posted on Facebook linking them to terrorists

 Expect more of this to keep coming, that's my view. Xanana has made it his personal mission to destroy Alkatiri, even if it means sacrificing our tradition of religious tolerance. One way to weaken Alkatiri is to vilify the Muslim community, painting it as outsiders, as "others". Throughout the campaign, Xanana has been busy trying to erase Alkatiri from history despite Alkatiri being one of our founding fathers. Removing Alkatiri's Timoreseness will be his ultimate goal this time. As the process to ostracize Alkatiri unfolds, we will neither see Xanana nor Taur come out in defense of our Muslim community. You watch!

And all this for what? You may disagree with my assessment above. Or you may agree with it and call it gamesmanship for the electoral campaign. But I think it goes much deeper.

You see, Alkatiri is perhaps the only leader with enough awareness of the abyss currently staring at us. If we are not careful with our limited financial resources, we will be begging for donors in 10 years time to keep our nation together and our state afloat. Xanana on the other hand is weak as a leader and incapable of making decisions in the interest of the country. The only way to maintain his power is to raid our sovereign wealth fund and buy off his critics through handouts disguised as government contracts, often extended through single source contracts signed personally by Xanana himself. Members of his family and his close associates are involved major national projects, from diesel to fuel our power plants, to mega projects in the South Coast, to media outlets, retails, quarries, oil companies, land acquisitions, real estate properties, you name it. The stakes are high and Xanana is the key to protecting them. I hear from trusted sources that Nilton Gusmão, Xanana's wealthy nephew, is a shareholder in Timor Resources, a subsidiary of Nipean Resources, a small mining company in Australia. Timor Resources has been awarded contracts to prospect for oil in the South Coast. It is also suspected that Nilton Gusmão may also have a stake in Hyundai Industries, a Korean company awarded with $700 million contract to build the Suai Supply Base.

I used to think of Xanana as a man with a mission to transform this country from a post-colonial, post-conflict stricken land into a modern prosperous economy. Now it has become more obvious that Xanana's first priority is to satisfy his own personal desires, then, those of his family members, his cronies, including those veterans who once fought in the armed resistance beside him, and, the saddest part of all, his friends in Indonesia, i.e. Indonesian generals whose companies, such as Hutama Karya and Waskita Karya, regularly receive monstrous government projects

Not only is Xanana is a demagogue, he is also the archetypal post-independence third world leader whose mission to rid his country of foreign dominance is born out of his own desire to replace those foreigners with himself. I wonder what he talks about with those warlords in Juba or in Guinea-Bissau every time he visits those countries under the g7+ umbrella.

Ah.... let's continue another time!

 

Dear readers,

I am saddened by what is taking place in Timor Leste. I am particularly saddened by the acts of Mr. Xanana Gusmao.

Mr. Xanana is a national hero and for many years he has been the voice at home and overseas for peace and dialogue. But his behaviour during the last few years are very inconsistent.

Mr. Xanana's control of government in the last 10 years has been tainted with issues of nepotism and corruption. It began with his government awarding millions of dollars worth of contract to his own daughter and his own nephew. Then many of his senior ministers were found guilty of corruption and jailed. The latest person to be sentenced is Madame Emilia Pires. But Pires has now ran away to Portugal. The former minister of justice, minister of education, have all been sentenced for crimes related to corruption. What kind of government is this?

Mr. Xanana and Madame Emilia Pires are the architects of the g7+ group. G7+ promotes peace among fragile member countries from Afghanista to South Sudan to West African countries. Mr. Xanana and his government have gone on many g7+ tours to talk about dialogue and peace as percursor to development. But what does Mr. Xanana do in his home country?

Mr. Xanana is very vindictive. He has had fall outs with all of Timor Leste's national leaders and every time this happens he closes his door to them, he refuses to talk to them and instead campaigns to destroy them publicly. When Taur Matan Ruak was president, Xanana as Prime Minister refused to talk to Taur Matan Ruak. Then he also refused communications with Dr. Jose Ramos-Horta. Since the results of last year's elections came out, he also began to avoid Mari Alkatiri. Today he has not talked to Alkatiri, who is the leader of the ruling party and current prime minister. If g7+ promotes dialogue, then Xanana has failed to live up to his the mission and vision of this group.

I also need to say something about how Xanana reacted to the results of last year's elections. When the results came out, Xanana went in to hiding. He did not publicly congratulate the victor Fretilin. He did not publicly congratulate our electoral bodies like STAE and CNE. He did not publicly congratulate the people for taking part in the elections peacefully. It took him many days, many weeks, to finally come out. This is not the quality of a good leader who goes to fragile countries to promote dialogue and peace. Xanana's actions seems to show that he did not accept the results of the election and we must conclude that his actions resulted in the failure of the formation of a stable government.

That is a big pity. As a father of the Timor Leste nation, he needs to set the good example for other leaders. As the architect of g7+ and an eminent person, he needs to set the example for other fragile nations to follow suit.

The campaign period is another episode which reveals Xanana's weakness. AMP has campaigned on a very divisive platform forcing the Timorese people to chose between those who fought at home and those fought abroad. Timor Leste people went through 24 painful years. Many became war refugees abroad after having lost families and possessions. But Xanana and his AMP are sowing division among the Timorese people in order to exploit it for elections. His AMP group is making this election as a contest between those who fought in the armed resistance and those who fought in the diplomatic front. During their campaigns they regularly portray those who lived abroad and fought in the diplomatic front as free riders, as people who came back after independence to enjoy what he and Taur Matan Ruak sacrificed their lives for. There is an active attempt by Xanana and his AMP group to divert discussions in the electoral campaign from one about policy and program, to one about who did what during the resistance period. It is a big pity because as a former guerilla commander, Xanana's record over the past 10 years have not been pretty. When you have a number of your senior ministers ending up in jail for corruption, that is a sign of weak leadership and incompetence.

Even more shameful is Xanana and AMP group's attempt to exploit religious differences to gain advantage. AMP people regularly tell community members in the rural areas that if Fretilin wins in the May election, Timor Leste will become a Muslim country. Why? Because Mari Alkatiri the leader of Fretilin is a muslim. Fretilin has been forced to defend itself over this insidious tactic. Xanana himself has been at the forefront of this making subliminal references to Mari Alkatiri's religion during his public speeches. During a public campaign in Maliana Xanana even said that Mari Alkatiri ate pork and as a result of this Mari Alkatiri's brains stopped functioning. Call it what you want but I find this to be very disrespectful of other religions and it is obvious that Xanana is trying to stoke religious prejudice and intolerance. As the conceptor of the g7+ group, which also includes many Muslim countries like Afghanistan, and as a neighbour to the largest Muslim country in the world, Xanana should be the first person to promote tolerance. Timor Leste has a proud tradition of religious tolerance but Xanana is willing to sacrifice this for the sake of winning an election. Then what of the g7+ members he is trying to steer towards the path of peace and development? Very sad!

Xanana and AMP's discourse during the elections have also been characterised by hatred, seeing their political opponents not as adversaries but as enemies, sometimes the enemies of the people. Xanana and Taur Matan Ruak regularly speak of chasing away, from Oecusse or even from Timor Leste their opponents. Taur Matan Ruak called his opponents dogs, describing them as lice, talked about killing both the dog lice and dog to get rid of the lice. Another AMP official who is also a former guerrilla fighter threatened to spray bullets against community members.

Taur Matan Ruak regularly warns former combatants that only he and Xanana can continue to pay them their benefits. They campaigned on lies that Fretilin and Mari Alkatiri are agents of the Australian government and are working towards bringing the Greater Sunrise pipeline to Australia instead of Timor. All these discourse have lead to an unprecedented level of polarization in Timor's politics, and that is a recipe for acts that could lead to violence. We are already seeing minor incidents going both ways between supporters of AMP and Fretilin. Instead of calling for peace, Xanana regularly exploits this. In Manatuto public campaign, Xanana held up pictures of victims to the public and blames Fretilin for this. While he calls for peace and restraint, I say his actual message was to the contrary. He was inciting AMP supporters to react and retaliate. All parties call for restraint and tolerance. All criminal incidents resulting from the campaign activities should be treated as crimes and be investigated by the police. They should not be exploited and used to incite further anger and retribution. Xanana's call for Fretilin to be shut down should be the ultimate act of provocation from a leader who is supposedly the voice of tolerance, of dialogue, of peace, of reconciliation, of g7+. Maybe Xanana wants Fretilin's supporters to react and sow the seeds of conflict? I can't see it any other way.

I should also add that the way Timor's election is being reported in here is showing a lot of bias. I don't know who the journalist is but the news is largely one sided. I hope The Associated Press has some journalistic decency to also report the voices of the other side.

Sincerely...

Reflesaun...

Greetings dear readers...

I have been following the latest political developments with dismay. The victory by AMP, another five years with Xanana and his cronies, now with the support of Taur Matan Ruak, spells disaster for Timor Leste.

Xanana led a very corrupt government over the past 10 years. He has successfully created a society where corruption and mismanagement is acceptable; where the public servants and officials can use the state to enrich themselves.

The Timor Leste elite, veterans, family members of the politicians, and their cronies, have now captured the state. The Timor Leste intelligentsia, many of whom supported Taur Matan Ruak and now Xanana and his CNRT, have chosen to reinforce this system.

This system will drive the country further down the path towards failure; failure for the people but not for the elite. In the last 10 years, Xanana has managed to waste $14 billion of Timor Leste's financial resources, in addition to hundreds of millions of dollars of loans from ADB, World Bank and Chinese banks.

Still Timor Leste is a country without proper functioning health system on par with the supposed investments over the past 10 years. The education system still fails to produce capable Timorese people able to perform many tasks key to developing the country. The country still lacks adequate water and sanitation; most homes still don't have piped water, children and women still walk large distance to fetch water, still yet many defecate openly. Although I admit that it would be unfair to say that nothing at all was produced over the last 10 years, but one should expect there to be more if you take the $14 billion they spent over the last 10 years.

But who became millionaire in the process? Among the nouveau riche includes Xanana's own daughter and nephews. They benefited handsomely from Xanana's generosity, mostly channeled through government contracts handed out by the government. Xanana's daughter, Zenilda Gusmao was finally investigated over her business dealings, among the charges include tax avoidance. But now that her father is back in the hot seat, she may see these charges dropped and will revert back to her old corrupt dealings. Xanana's family is known as the Keluarga Cendana, or the Cendana Family, a name given to Suharto's family.

Alas, the people have chosen. Xanana and Taur Matan Ruak ran a very successful campaign against FRETILIN and PD. They employed some of the most devious tactics against FRETILIN; a lot of scare mongering; racial and religious slurs; and plenty of falsehoods. Unfortunately, FRETILIN, and PD, was not prepared for such assault. Perhaps no one would have thought at the time that Xanana would sink to the level of a shrewd African politician. While FRETILIN tried to play nice, Xanana was eroding its support through demagoguery. It was a shocking experience to watch FRETILIN being devoured by a demagogue.

In a properly functioning democracy, where the public is well informed, Xanana would have been wiped out at the election. But in Timor Leste personality based politics is strong; patron-client relationship between politicians and the elite remain strong and perhaps proved decisive - it's true; my well off relatives who benefited from the past 10 years see FRETILIN as its enemy who would tighten spending and rid the system of hand outs. Where the society sees corruption as acceptable way of managing the state, Xanana would be a first choice.

So what will happen over the next 5 years? It's scary. If Xanana's appetite for mega projects continues, we will see whatever is left of the country's sovereign wealth fund, the Petroleum Fund, quickly exhausted. The rich and those well connected will get richer and reap most of the benefits. The public at large will remain with bad roads, bad health and education system, lower standards of living, etc. Poverty numbers will perhaps improve in the short run, but after the Petroleum Fund is exhausted, without much alternative to derive its income, the country will quickly descend into chaos.

Even if the much promised Greater Sunrise project is developed, the returns from this development is only enough to hold the country for another 5 to 10 years. But with the ongoing stalemate as to where a processing centre should be based, we may end up not developing this project at all, unless if we can fork out between $7 billion to $12 billion to extract the resources ourselves. Currently we have less than $17 billion in our sovereign wealth fun.

Xanana and his crew campaigned on a promise to bring the pipeline onshore, of downstream benefits, of thousands of jobs, of developing the south coast, etc. These promises were popular among some of the intelligentsia, mainly from the PLP faction. But I know that these PLP hacks don't believe in these promises. Many of them are smart enough to do simple analysis, some number crunching, understand global economic trends, etc., to conclude that these promises are empty campaign sloganeering. Yet, they were happy to perpetuate such lies during the campaign. Sad indeed.

So in this blog, I will try to put my thoughts together and reflect on what has just happened and why. What possible future lay ahead of us. Let me know in the comments section, your opinion, objections, or questions you may have. I'll be happy to answer them.

Viva Timor Leste!