XANANA ABANDONS AMP GOVERNMENT IN A CLEAR RIFT WITH TMR!

There is no other way to describe the decision by Xanana Gusmão (XG) to announce publicly that he would be withdrawing himself as candidate to be Minister Counsellor to the PM and Minister of State for Strategic Investment and Planning, but as a desertion or abandoning of the coalition.

Taur Matan Ruak (TMR) stalwart and PLP founder, veteran journalist Jose Belo, was the most honest announcer of the significance of Xanana’s move when he wrote in an international news service: “New Timor-Leste govt beset with problems as Gusmao walks away.”

A resignation such as this, at such an important event as the approval of the government program by the national parliament is without doubt as Belo wrote, a walk away, an abandonment of the government, a very clear and unambiguous message being sent to the PM and his government that they do not have his support. This is particularly so because of the important figure represented by XG and the fact that he is the leader of the party that has 71% of the seats in the governing coalition.

Now, if there was goodwill involved at all in this decision, and it was a matter that was not meant to be misinterpreted publicly in any way, or calculated so as not to have a negative impact in any way on the health of the government, then the logical and reasonable thing to do would have been to wait until the government had a program pass through the parliament then make the announcement. Why could it not have waited? Just a few days? Because it was in bad faith.

It was clearly meant to be a signal or expression of unhappiness with the performance of the Prime Minister either during the debate on the government program, or the negotiations with the president of the Republic in relation to the remaining members of government to be sworn in.

In any other country, and even here, it is reasonable to assume that in withdrawing his name from the list of ministers in the government, that he is unhappy with some aspect of the new coalition government.

In fact it is reasonable to draw the conclusion that he is withdrawing his moral and political support from the Prime Minister and the government. When you consider that in light of clause 22 of the coalition agreement (see below for the pre-electoral agreement between CNRT, PLP and KHUNTO), which stipulates that 30 days after the Prime Minister being sworn in the coalition is automatically dissolved, it is a signal of an even deeper severing of relations between all concerned.

There are rumours that the big man is unhappy with the fact that the government program gave little attention to the gas pipeline coming from greater sunrise and the LNG plant on the south coast.

During the debate on the government program, it was also clear that there was not much defense by the Prime Minister of the record of governance by the big man. In contrast we heard him praise the FRETILIN petroleum fund.

It is also a well known fact that XG did not participate in the workshop the coalition held at the Novo Turismo hotel to discuss the government program to be presented in parliament. It is clear that XG was not happy from that time onwards.

AMP members also report a rift between XG and the PM arising out of the breach by the PM of an agreement reached at the coalition’s retreat in Liquica not to have the government program debated in parliament until XG was sworn in as a minister. It appears the PM and his clique in the government took a different view afterwards.

The statement in the CNRT media center Facebook page announcing the withdrawal tried in vain to put a positive spin on it by declaring that the reason was so that he could devote more time to the Maritime Boundary negotiation. Nor does it make any sense. He was Minister with the same portfolio as he was listed to become when he negotiated the maritime boundaries the last time round. This is just a smoke screen.

The CNRT media center is discredited and nothing that they say can be believed in even a small way. It is clear that his hangers on are very concerned about what this will mean for the future of the government.

One thing is clear, it seems that he is engaging in a new political guerilla campaign, as he likes to self describe his moves against his opponents. But the question this time is: against whom?

One thing is clear, a prime minister and a government have been sworn in. Regardless of how many members are still to be sworn in, this government is now constitutionally in place, and there is no reason why it should not continue to govern with all effect. In fact as far as the Constitution is concerned, the post-election governing process and role of the president have been carried out.
What remains to be seen now is how the major party in the coalition, the CNRT, who will follow XG over a cliff if asked, will behave in relation to the first budget the government is due to present soon.

There are other important tests coming up including deliberating on proposed laws. The anti-corruption law is the most important one of all of those. The election of a new anti-corruption commissioner will be another test for the coalition. One would expect there to be no clear unified position within the coalition on the candidate given that the PM was rolled by the parliament. Every approval needed by the government from the parliament will be major test with accompanying tension.

XG and his 11 presidentially rejected ministerial appointments are increasingly more isolated. Not only have the veterans supported the president, but even a group usually balanced, and concerned not to support XG, RENETIL, have met with the president and expressed their support for the president in vetting these 11 candidates for Minister, Vice Minister and Secretaries of State.

The obvious question that must also be asked now is: is XG's withdrawal as a ministerial candidate an admission of impending defeat by him of his fight against the president of the republic, albeit grudgingly, or as some have suggested, a temper tantrum in the face of inevitable defeat?

Or has he just engaged in a strategic retreat to set up the new strategy to strike back. He does after all just seem to like to fight; anyone who disobeys or confronts him; that is obvious from his history. CNRT is supposed to have a party conference next week. There is always the possibility that XG will use that conference to create confusion and perhaps even political instability, in order to regain strategic ascendancy. He should remember that he is no longer the leviathan of Timorese politics he once was. He should accept the diminution of his political power with humility and responsibility and contribute to political and civil stability, not manipulate it to suit his Machiavellian gamesmanship. This includes supporting the coalition government he created and not undermine it.